I just looked into my crystal ball, and have 4 predictions to share:
1) John McCain Will Lose Embarrassingly to Obama: 349-189
The deck has been stacked against John McCain for weeks now, and we can definitely chalk up some of the obstacles in his path to bad timing - the housing slump, the stock market mini-crash, the failing war in Afghanistan, and the president’s approval rating, to name a few.
There are additional, significant reasons why John McCain will lose in a landslide, however, that are entirely of his own making - the reckless fashion in which he chose an embarrassingly unlettered running mate (read: he didn’t have the guts to pick Joe Lieberman), his decision to base the core of his campaign’s message on personalities and side shows instead of ideas, the manner in which he abandoned his more centrist positions to pander to the Republican base, the ridiculous “suspension” of his campaign to “solve” the economic crisis, and the general intellectual dishonesty and viciousness he and his staff have exhibited towards Obama for months.
The reason I say McCain will lose “embarrassingly” is not because he is only going to muster 189 electoral college votes, but because he has run a bottom-feeder campaign based on scare tactics and dishonesty. And I’m not the only one noticing this - today in Indiana, for example, dozens of employees at a call center walked off the job after refusing to read a misleading McCain robocall script accusing Obama of “coddling criminals,” voting against “protecting children from danger,” being “dangerously weak on crime,” and a variety of other attacks.
What has become crystal clear to anyone being truly honest about this year’s election is that John McCain is utterly desperate and will now say or do anything to get elected. He has abandoned respectability and has permanently damaged his brand. A hard-fought race is desirable, but McCain should keep in mind from here on in that this election is already over no matter how much hate he spews between now and Tuesday. Obama has run a vastly superior campaign and Obama-Biden is a vastly superior ticket (note: I was a staunch Hillary Clinton supporter). Checkmate.
Key states Obama will take to win 349 electoral votes: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. If polls continue to slide for McCain as Americans reject his tactics, watch for Obama to make serious plays for North Carolina, Indiana, and West Virginia, possibly pushing his total as high as 380.
2) Democrats Will Increase Their Senate Lead to 59
The Democrats will fall short of taking a filibuster-proof 60 seats in the Senate. I think seats in Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky, and Maine are likely to stay in the Republican column (but this could change if Obama keeps gaining traction). Thanks to Sen. Ted Stev
ens’ conviction this afternoon, I predict that the Democrats will now pick up eight Senate seats, bringing their total to 59. The likely result will be that the Democrats will essentially have a filibuster-proof majority, as it isn’t too difficult to find a centrist Republican or two when needed (Collins, Snowe, Spector, Voinovich, etc.).
Side note: Remember back in 2004 when Republicans were talking about a “permanent Republican majority” in both houses? Too bad for the Republicans that they can’t put gay marriage on the ballot every election.
Key states in which Democrats will pick up Senate seats: Alaska, Washington, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia, and North Carolina
In an ideal world:
- Norm Coleman (R-MN) will lose big. He is my least favorite elected official (see “A Weed in the Lawn”).
- John Sununu (R-NH) will lose big. Deserves it.
- Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) will end up losing. He is the guy who compared his opponent in 2002, a triple amputee veteran and very decent human being, to Osama Bin Laden.
- Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will end up losing. Revenge is sweet - remember Tom Daschle!
- Joe Lieberman (I-CT) will lose his chairmanship and be kicked out of the Democratic caucus. Traitor.
3) Democrats Will Pick up 25 Seats in the House
The Democrats will add an additional 25 seats to their majority in the House of Representatives. This addition is significant because it will enable the Democratic leadership to allow some conservative or vulnerable Democrats to vote against more “liberal” bills while still knowing the measures will pass. It is also a serious blow to Republicans because it will diminish their power to an even greater extent.
4) Rod the God Will Appoint Himself to Fill Obama’s Seat
Gov. Rod “the God” Blagojevich (D-IL) will appoint himself to fill the remaining two years of Barack Obama’s Senate term. Blagojevich has been a disaster of a governor, and the only reason he won reelection two 
years ago was because the Republican Party in Illinois is a total joke. I think Rod will see the writing on the wall - that I have a greater chance at being elected governor of Illinois in 2010 than he does - and appoint himself to fill Obama’s seat.
Another intriguing possibility would be for Blago to appoint Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D-IL) to fill Obama’s seat. Madigan is the daughter of Illinois Speaker of the House Mike Madigan, and has been hugely popular in her role as the state’s chief law enforcement officer. She is seen as a likely primary challenger to Blagojevich in 2010, so he could eliminate the threat from her with this appointment. The state comptroller, Dan Hynes, will also run for governor in 2010, but he is much less formidable than Madigan.
News outlets have discussed the possibility of Blago appointing Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., to fill Obama’s seat, and that could certainly happen. While I am not a fan of Jackson or his father, he is definitely a leading contender. Finally, Rod the God could appoint the retiring president of the Illinois state senate, Emil Jones, to fill Obama’s term. Jones, also an African American, has been a staunch ally of Blagojevich in a state government full of Rod-bashers.
So there they are, my 4 major predictions for this election. Think I’m wrong? Share your predictions below and we’ll revisit most of them on Tuesday night. Keep in mind, as a general rule of thumb, that I’m usually right.
Steve Wieland
fsford
timhilton
smahieu
Morgan N. Engling
maryiowa
jaimiesuzi
jarens
kevinjames
brieanne
lcm
Andrew
enwinfield
Senate:
VA, CO, NH, NM and AK are clear D pickups. Sadly for the state of my party, had Ted Stevens been acquitted, I honestly think he would have won re-election. He was down 1 point (1 point!) while on trial for felony corruption charges, what kind of an insane state is this? I doubt he would have had the decency to then resign and allow Palin to appoint a decent replacement, so good riddance. Make your 6 years count, Mark Begich.
NC, OR and MN are likely D pickups, but I think the GOP holds one of them, and two is possible. I’d like to make a conciliatory gesture to Mr. Mahieu by rooting for Dole in NC and Smith in OR, but Al Franken? Seriously? Here’s hoping that Minnesotans have more sense next week than they did when they elected Jesse Ventura.
Chambliss? I don’t see it happening, but stranger things have happened. The idea that Obama will win Georgia is a cute little fantasy, like McCain campaigning in Pennsylvania, and I just don’t see people voting for McCain and against Chambliss without a compelling reason.
McConnell by 5.
I don’t follow IL politics much, but I get the sense from Steve’s post that Blagojevich isn’t the most favored son. Appointing himself might the best chance for a Republican pickup of both the governorship and the senate seat, so more power to him.
My one bold prediction is that Jack Murtha will lose his long-held seat in Congress, after representing the PA-12th since 1974. He called his constituents racists, despite the fact that several counties in his district voted for a black gubernatorial candidate 2 years ago, and then tried to temper this by saying that they’re rednecks. Oh, and there was this thing about constantly bellowing about his military service, and then accusing US servicemen of murder and not apologizing when they were cleared or the charges dropped. I’m probably wrong, but whatever. It would be a strange upset, in that his opponent didn’t get enough signatures to get on the Republican primary ballot, but won via write-in.
I think you may be right about Murtha, and I would be ok with him losing. I don’t have much use for that blowhard.
I don’t see Chambliss losing either, but he would in an ideal would. Same for McConnell, but he isn’t as evil as Saxby.
Wanting Franken to win is largely selfish on my part. He is clearly very intelligent guy, but whether he’ll make a good senator is unclear. What is clear, though, is that Norm Coleman is the source of all evil.
As for Liddy and Gordon, do I think they’ll lose this time around? You betcha!
If Franken wins, my faith in American politics will be both revived and destroyed.
I’m predicting Obama will take home 337 electoral votes. I’m predicting a win in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (though I am still concerned about each of these states). These states are crucial and it may be a late before the Ohio results come in.
Shocker special - North Dakota goes blue to make it up to Daschle on rumors that he is on the short list for Obama’s chief of staff.
I agree that it could become a rout, with high voter registration in Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia, suggesting a possible win for Obama in these states. Furthermore, Indiana looks good for Obama as well as any other post-industrial state where the economy is the only issue on the table (e.g., Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania). While Missouri is also having its share of economic troubles, I don’t see it going blue this year. I don’t see Obama getting more than 374 electoral votes.
As for the Senate, I predict a big night for the Dems, but don’t anticipate getting 60 seats. Warner and Udall are in for sure. I think Landreau will hold on to win and Hagan will squeak by in NC. Sununu will weather the Noreaster and Coleman will win as voters cross back after the top of the ticket. I agree with you Steve that Chambliss is going to lose. Finally, I think Ted Stevens is gonna win, but if he is expelled, Gov. Palin will appoint a temporary replacement until a special election is held 90 days out. Palin could appoint herself and run in the special election. She may have a good shot at winning over Alaskans who relish the national spotlight.
Election day revisions . . .
I think the Dems will take a couple fewer House seats than 25 - perhaps 21-23.
If Obama wins Minnesota by a large margin, I think he’ll being Al Franken along for the ride (although the margin will be substantially smaller). Otherwise, scandal-ridden Norm Coleman may be returning for 6 more years.
While my post above made Chambliss seem like more of a pipe dream, I think there is a very significant chance he will lose today because of historic African American turnout.
I’m a little shaky still calling Missouri for Obama, but I think the City of St. Louis and St. Louis County will go huge for Obama, so I’m still saying the Show Me State turns blue. St. Louis is notorious for taking forever in reporting the vote, so be patient as the Missouri returns come in.
Finally, I think North Carolina will end up in Obama’s column too, thanks to high African American turnout and to Elizabeth Dole’s terrible campaign.
Watch for the race to be called for Obama just after 9:00 PM central time. The very latest I think it could be called would be 10:00 PM when the polls close on the west coast.